November 20th, 2009 by Jason

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was re-elected leader of Hezbollah for a sixth term in an unopposed election. Naim Qassem will remain his deputy. Hezbollah also announced they plan to release a new party manifesto in the coming days. Meanwhile, Michael Totten at Commentary reports that Israeli Major General Gabi Ashkenazi has confirmed that Hezbollah now possesses long-range missiles that can strike anywhere in Israel. Given this new development, Totten predicts a third Lebanon war would be much worse than before.

Such a war seems likely according to Nicholas Noe writing at BitterLemons. According to Noe, “Hizballah appears not only militarily stronger […] but also politically and ideologically more secure, confident, and to a certain degree, coherent.” It believes the March 14 Coalition no longer poses a significant obstacle and therefore feels able to “concentrate its energies” on Israel. Noe contends that Hezbollah feels that “a confrontation is not only inevitable, but when it comes it will finally lead to the total collapse of Israel.”

Also writing at BitterLemons, Eyal Zisser explores the “fragile and explosive” situation for both domestic politics in Beirut as well as the security confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. He concludes “either or both of these fronts could explode at any time.”  Focusing on the domestic front, Michel Nehme contends “Lebanon’s new unity government is unified in name only.” The cabinet reflects the country’s divisions as “rival ministers will be at each other’s throats in each cabinet session and more Saudi-Syrian intervention to pacify them will be continuously necessary.”

Nizar Abdel-Kader identifies the status of Hezbollah as one of the major complications in Lebanese politics, arguing “democracy has not prevailed and the power of Hizballah’s weapons will remain stronger than the public ballot and all state institutions.” Finally, Ferry Biederman explains why the “cabinet formation is a triumph for Damascus” who has learned that occupying Lebanon is not necessary to exert significant influence over the country’s economy and politics. According to Biederman, if Prime Minister Hariri can maintain stability over his full term, it would be a major achievement.

UPDATE: The Daily Star staff have written an editorial praising the recent decision by Hezbollah and Amal to allow state internal security forces to enter Beirut’s southern suburbs, an area long considered off-limits to the government. The editorial urges everyone to view the development as a positive step forward and calls on leaders on all sides provide rhetorical support and enact reforms to further bolster state legitimacy.

Posted in Diplomacy, Elections, Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Mideast Peace Plan, Military, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Syria |