Afghanistan: Troop Increase of 34,000?

There is an increasing consensus that President Obama has decided to announce an increase of 34,000 troops next Tuesday. In a recent press conference, Obama insisted “it is my intention to finish the job.”

Matthew Cooper at Atlantic’s Politics blog offers suggestions for what the President should say next week. Among them, he urges the President to avoid promises of creating a “perfect democracy” in Afghanistan, but instead seek to create “relative” stability to ward off Al Qaeda. Juan Cole expresses his doubts that the U.S. will be able to achieve anything but minimal objectives in Afghanistan. He observes the Afghan National Army turn-over rate currently sits at 25% and twelve of President Karzai‘s cabinet ministers are currently under corruption investigation. Meanwhile, Seumas Mine criticizes the Community Defense Initiative that pays tribes to buy their support against the Taliban, arguing the tactic will not be as effective in Afghanistan as it was in Iraq.

Last week, a pair of scholars from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Gilles Dorronsoro argued the fraud and low-turnout in the election has undermined Kabul’s legitimacy. Therefore, the U.S. should focus on shifting its focus to the more peaceful northern part of the country and avoid taking on too much responsibility while allowing Afghan institutions to strengthen. Ashley J. Tellis urged the U.S. to rebuild its relationship with Karzai, commit to staying for the long-term, and foster a stronger civil-military partnership.

Finally, Foreign Affairs has republished a collection of articles about Afghanistan dating back over 25 years, giving an interesting background to the current situation in the country.