Failed State Index Measures Progress for Iraq; Predicts Failure in Yemen, Pakistan

Foreign Policy has released its 2009 annual Failed States Index, which is a timely analysis of how a “virulent economic crisis, countless natural disasters, and government collapse” have affected states across the world, writes FP.  The global economic crisis, predicts FP, may have provided a combustible environment for state failure in many countries, which draws policy implications for the UN, World Bank and U.S. about who–and how–to help.

Middle Eastern states fared both well, moving down the index (such as Iraq and Egypt), and poorly (such as Yemen and Iran). Here we compare statistics from 2007, 2008 and the 2009 report:

• #6 Iraq – has shown progress moving from 5th in 2008 and 2nd since 2007

• #7 Afghanistan – maintained its number 7 spot from 2007, which is a backslide from 8 in 2007

• #10 Pakistan – moved from 9 in 2008, but has strayed from the 12 in the list in 2007, FP cites the growing insurgency as the main factor that threatens the state.

• #19 Yemen – has regressed from 21 in 2008 and 24 in 2007.
  

  “A perfect storm of state failure is now brewing [in Yemen]: disappearing oil and water reserves; a mob of migrants, some allegedly with al Qaeda ties, flooding in from Somalia, the failed state next door; and a weak government increasingly unable to keep things running. Many worry Yemen is the next Afghanistan: a global problem wrapped in a failed state,” writes FP.

• #29 Lebanon - improved since its political crisis in 2008 when it ranked 18 and has improved from 28 in 2007. The Daily Star analyzes Lebanon’s varying scores since 2005 in the context of recent political upheavals and the Lebanese confessional system.

• #38 Iran - has consistently weakened from 2008 when it ranked 49 and 2007 when it took the 57th spot. FP points mostly to “economic mismanagement” as the root of problems related to Iran’s backsliding.

• #39 Syria – scored 35 in 2008 and 40 in 2007

• #43 Egypt - progressed from 40 in 2008 and 36 in 2007

• #46 Mauritania – slid from 47 in 2008 and 45 in 2007

• #58 Israel/West Bank -  remained at 58 from 2008