October 6th, 2008 by Jason

RAND has published an ambitious, book-length empirical study on the link between democratic reform and terrorism. The report looks at 15 years of liberalization efforts in six case studies: Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Morocco.

Their overarching conclusion is that process matters. The enhanced legitimacy of a system produced by political opening does serve to undermine extremists, yet stability is threatened if reforms are not viewed as genuine or are reversed. The report finds that human rights, rule of law, and judiciary reform are the most critical elements in building the legitimacy of a nascent democratic process. However, merely cosmetic reforms or backtracking can destroy any legitimacy that has been earned.

The report also shows that allowing participation of moderate Islamist opposition in the political process has served to marginalize hard-liners in several MENA states. Though if the process is viewed as corrupt, or if it does not end up producing tangible results, in time it can embolden extremists.

The study calls for sustained non-violent U.S. pressure; an emphasis on rule of law and human rights; and a focus on strengthening democratic institutions and practices. It also recommends engaging moderate Islamist parties and working to expand the political sphere for all opposition elements.

Posted in Democracy Promotion, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Judiciary, Terrorism, US foreign policy |