April 18th, 2008 by Stephen

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has released a fascinating new report by David Pollock entitled “Slippery Polls: Uses and Abuses of Opinion Surveys from Arab States.” The in-depth report critiques public opinion polling for the Arab world, identifying a number of flaws in many such polls including the consistent overrepresentation of the citizens of one country while virtually ignoring citizens of another; the consequences of sharp and changing divides among demographic groups in the region; and sloppy methodology owing in part to the difficult environment of censorship and intimidation pervasive in the region.

Pollock does not conclude that all polling results should be ignored, but rather that some polls are quite flawed, while many others are worthwhile: “the United States needs to take some polls from Arab states seriously—which means taking others with a few large grains of salt.” He also provides a “cheat sheet” of ten criteria for deciding which polls to take seriously and which to ignore.

Pollock expresses skepticism on the validity of many conclusions drawn from public opinion polling in the Arab world, but he does see strong evidence for two major conclusions:

“First, almost all Arab polls show widespread, continuing disapproval of American policies, both in Iraq and in the Arab-Israeli arena—and negative overall images of the United States, especially since the war in Iraq. Second, on the brighter side, solid evidence from almost every Arab poll (and from almost every other Muslim poll as well) demonstrates a sharp turn against terrorism.”

Posted in Arab media, Public Opinion, Reform, Terrorism |