Rubin: Will Kurdish Democracy Follow Iran’s Path?
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Iraqi Kurds will vote in long-postponed provincial elections on July 25. Michael Rubin writes in the Daily Star that Iraqi Kurds are impatient for reform in a political landscape that has witnessed a decline in democracy, as nepotism and corruption have overtaken the political landscape. This anxious political climate means that long-established Kurdish parties and leaders, Massoud Barzani and President Jalal Talibani will face “serious local opposition” in the elections.
In response to discontent, open election lists have been closed. Moreover, intimidation has also riled the opposition, leading to clashes with security forces. Rubin draws parallels between recent Iranian politics and the emerging strife in northern Iraq, asking whether “Iraqi Kurds will stand up for freedom and liberty as have the Iranian protesters, and if the Iraqi Kurdish security forces will, like their Iranian counterparts, use the point of a gun and midnight roundups to disenfranchise a deserving people.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »
Failed State Index Measures Progress for Iraq; Predicts Failure in Yemen, Pakistan
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Foreign Policy has released its 2009 annual Failed States Index, which is a timely analysis of how a “virulent economic crisis, countless natural disasters, and government collapse” have affected states across the world, writes FP. The global economic crisis, predicts FP, may have provided a combustible environment for state failure in many countries, which draws policy implications for the UN, World Bank and U.S. about who–and how–to help.
Middle Eastern states fared both well, moving down the index (such as Iraq and Egypt), and poorly (such as Yemen and Iran). Here we compare statistics from 2007, 2008 and the 2009 report: Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Afghanistan, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Mauritania, Pakistan, Palestine, Syria, Yemen | Comment »
Egyptian Lawyer Reacts to Iran
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Arab and regional opinions of the Iranian situation have been noticeably scant in media coverage, although the Washington Post reported last week that Egyptian activists have been watching Iran closely. A request to Egypt’s government by Mamdouh Ismail, a Muslim Brotherhood lawyer, may shed light on Egyptian public opinion regarding Iran. Ismail requests that Egypt ban President Ahaminedjad from entering Egypt for a meeting next month.
The appeal is founded on widespread skepticism about the veracity of the Iranian election results. Ismail writes, “if he is not the legitimate president, then he shouldn’t be received in Egypt as such. His illegitimacy is obvious in the protests against him inside Iran.” Egypt and Iran enjoy cold relations and the Egyptian government did not congratulate Ahmadinejad when the election results were released.
Meanwhile, Paul Salem at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Beirut attempts to diffuse understated Arab opinions about Iran. The absence of foreign (including Arab) reporting in Iran was caused by a crackdown on the freedoms of foreign journalists, yet al-Jazeera was granted permission to film in Tehran yesterday. Its footage covered scenes of a return to normality in the streets, although silent reminders of the protests remain throughout the city, including pro-Mousavi graffiti.
Posted in Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Iran, Muslim Brotherhood, Public Opinion | Comment »
Jordanian King Names Successor
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Today Jordan’s King Abdullah announced his 15-year old son Prince Hussein Bin Abdullah as crown prince. The King’s successor has remained uncertain for five years, after the intrigue caused when the late King Hussein named his eldest son Abdullah (the current monarch) crown prince shortly before his death in 1999, thus divesting his brother Prince Hassan of the title. The text of the Palace’s statement in Arabic can be found here.
Posted in Jordan | Comment »
Lebanon Moves to Form Cabinet
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Last Saturday, Saad Hariri was named Prime Minister of Lebanon, which has initiated a flurry of activity and dialogue in forming the new cabinet. Much like its predecessor, the cabinet will likely comprise 30 seats and yield to universal agreement about a national unity government. The composition of the Cabinet is under cacophonous discussion, with each voice demanding different shares of representation.
Christian opposition leaders demand proportional representation, yet the March 14 majority rejects any such formula that would allow the opposition a veto power over decisions. Hariri met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week, which solidified Hezbollah’s stance that demands governmental representation that allows a veto power. Negotiations are expected to take time, especially with distraction over the upcoming Saudi-Syrian talks.
Posted in Elections, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Political Parties, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Syria | Comment »
Boubekeur: Moroccan Political Parties Destabilized by Elections
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Amel Boubekeur writes that although the Moroccan elections witnessed higher youth and women’s participation, they did not cement Morocco’s fluid party system (that is penetrated by royal interests), but weakened it. This fragmentation is caused by a lack of interest in the functioning of parties, which elicit less interest than royally administered development initiatives. Boubekeur claims that electoral reform did not ameliorate the blemishes in the system; in fact the parties were destabilized by certain reforms.
POMED’s Morocco country page has recent in-depth updates about the country.
Posted in Elections, Morocco, Political Parties, Reform, Women | Comment »
State’s Plan to Reach Out
July 2nd, 2009 by Max
In a press briefing, Farah Pandith, the State Department’s new Special Representative to Muslim Communities, discussed her recently created position, and explained her role in helping the U.S. Government to “think about the grassroots level, to think about what mainstream Muslims are thinking and doing and figure out ways to create dialogue.” In attaining these goals, Pandith said that the State Department seeks to be “out of the box” and “innovative” in its approaches to Muslim engagement, particularly following President Obama’s recent Cairo speech.
When asked how she planned to engage non-mainstream Muslims as well, Pandith acknowledged that “there is no one bullet that will fix anything; there is no program that will be the magic program.” A substantial part of her agenda will be engaging the Muslim youth.
Akbar Ahmed, of American University in Washington DC, assesses Pandith’s task and argues that listening to Muslims “is only half the story. The second half is to in fact to do something about it.”
Posted in Public Opinion, US foreign policy | Comment »
Freedom House Applauds Democracy Budget Request
July 2nd, 2009 by Max
Freedom House released a press release expressing its approval of a $234 million increase in democracy and human rights funding in President Obama’s budget request, compared to the previous year. Still, Freedom House expressed its disappointment that democracy and human rights funding, even at $2.81 billion, represents less than nine percent of the total foreign assistance funding request.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Freedom, Human Rights, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iran Closes Opposition Newspaper in Response to Karroubi
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Iran’s government has shut down an opposition newspaper associated with presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi’s party. Etemad Melli was closed in the wake of statements from opposition leaders yesterday, including Karroubi, who labeled the Iranian government “illegitimate.” AFP reports that the government’s action is based on barring Karroubi’s statement from publication.
NIAC has posted news that Etemad Melli also reported recent numbers on prisoners and deaths in Tehran that are higher than governmental statistics. Etemad Melli’s website, which remains online, reports that its editor Mohammad Ghoochani is among the opposition activists and journalists that are currently being detained.
At Democracy Digest, Michael Allen considers the newspaper’s close in the context of declining Iranian democracy, a crisis of legitimacy and the now solidified opposition movement, all of which have been discussed by commentators recently.
Posted in Iran, Middle Eastern Media, Political Parties | Comment »
Baathist Reform on the Rise in Syria?
July 2nd, 2009 by Blake
Middle East Online reports that stagnation in Syria’s monolithic Baath Party has caused many to call for modernization that ensures compatibility between the Baath’s socialist model and emerging economic liberalization. A sluggish economy, low oil production and unemployment has led Syria to open its state-controlled economy in recent years.
Many Baath members are unengaged in the party after demands to modernize the political landscape (particularly with multiple parties) were met with inaction. Baath’s socialist ideology also suffers from a lack of popular support, as it is criticized for having been colonized by individual business interests. Ayman Abdelnour, a reformist Baath member, says that an eventual multi-party system may nevertheless be undermined by these established political trends. If there is change, parties will likely remain led by businessmen and clerics loyal to the Baath government.
Posted in Political Parties, Public Opinion, Reform, Syria | Comment »
Gerson: The Freedom Agenda Must Live On
July 1st, 2009 by Blake
Michael Gerson at the Washington Post wrote a timely op-ed last week that considers recent developments in the Middle East as proof that democracy is taking hold in the region, one step at a time. Constitutional democracy in Iraq, Iranian calls for reform and democratic improvements in Lebanon and Kuwait reveal a “period of democratic progress,” which prove that the region is not immune to democratic growth.
Acknowledging that democracy promotion has its challenges, Gerson urges Washington to capitalize on what he sees as the current atmosphere of reform in the region. Democracy promotion must be the forefront of U.S.-Middle East policy agenda because it is integral to social and economic progress, regional peace and non-proliferation, as well as U.S. interests and values.
On the other hand, Rami Khouri does not view the region to be on the verge of a democratic Spring, but comments on the inactivity amongst Arabs in calling for democracy. He writes that Arabs have not risen against their governments because they are largely disassociated with the state and have established parallel social structures to provide services that the government does not. Moreover, Arab states’ frail legitimacy reinforces a “declining allure of the prize of political incumbency” in Arab states. This disaffection with governments thus undermines proactive calls for democratic reform (as in Iran).
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, US foreign policy | Comment »
Mousavi: Protesting is an Historical Responsibility
July 1st, 2009 by Blake
Iranian opposition leaders, presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former President Khatami, issued statements today indicating the opposition’s continued defiance. Mousavi told Iranians that it is their “responsibility” to continue demanding their rights. He pressed the state to release imprisoned protesters, establish electoral reform and uphold press freedoms. Referring to the Iranian government, Mousavi stated that “a majority of the people–including me–do not accept its political legitimacy…There’s a danger ahead. A ruling system which relied on people’s trust for 30 years cannot replace this trust with security forces overnight.” The Guardian suggests that Mousavi’s statement is written to signal that the Iranian government is flouting the very values espoused in the 1979 revolution.
Khatami terms the unstable domestic atmosphere in Iran “a poisonous security situation” wherein a unilateral “velvet coup” has attacked and insulted the political maturity of the people and the tenets of democracy. Nevertheless, he expressed hope and urged supporters to sustain the struggle. (Click here for full text in Persian). Mehdi Karroubi, also a presidential candidate, has similarly labeled the government illegitimate and called for the release of political prisoners. In light of the opposition’s resilience and leadership, Scott Macleod at TIME argues that a “revitalized reform movement” can only be on the rise.
Posted in Elections, Freedom, Iran, Reform | Comment »
Could Ahmadi be Barred from Egypt?
July 1st, 2009 by Max
Al-Arabiya reports that an Egyptian group has filed a suit arguing that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran should be barred from entering Egypt. The argument is made on the grounds of the illegitimacy of his most recent election and allegedly blasphemous statements he has made in the past.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Iran | Comment »
Applebaum: Look to Morocco to Find a Model for Democracy Promotion
July 1st, 2009 by Blake
In the Washington Post Anne Applebaum writes that despite the semblance of progressive democracy in Morocco after its June 12 elections, corruption is nevertheless widespread and the population is depoliticized. She points out however, that Morocco leads the region in acknowledging past wrongdoings against its citizens.
Applebaum credits the government’s change in attitude not to a revolution but to the ascension of the young King Mohammed IV to the throne. The country’s Equity and Reconciliation Commission (which began in 2004) fostered an environment amenable to democracy by providing closure to the violent past in Morocco’s diverse and vehemently Islamic society, which includes jihadist elements. “It is possible to acknowledge and discuss human rights violations in this culture, just as they can be discussed elsewhere. Just because much of the Arab world lacks the political will to change doesn’t mean that change is always and forever impossible”, writes Applebaum.
View POMED’s Morocco country page to read recent analysis of Morocco.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Morocco, Reform | Comment »
Egypt Activist Detained Amid U.S. F-16 Sales to Egypt
July 1st, 2009 by Blake
Amid doubts as to whether President Obama’s outreach to the Middle East will be a break with past U.S. policy, the Arabist argues that so far Obama has pursued an Egypt policy that reinforces the military establishment. The Arabist claims that the sale of F-16 fighters to Egypt–which were denied by President Bush over concerns about human rights and democracy–undercuts the values Obama promoted during his speech in Cairo last month.
On the ground in Egypt, Wael Abbas, a blogger and human rights activist, was detained when attempting to re-enter the country yesterday. Abbas has previously documented police abuse, and he told the Los Angeles Times that he was concerned about being framed and arrested on false charges as other Egypt-born journalists have been.
View POMED’s Egypt country page to read recent updates.
Posted in Diplomacy, Egypt, Freedom, Journalism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iran Hangs Six Opposition Supporters
July 1st, 2009 by Blake
Drawing criticism from some senior clerics over the way it has handled the fallout from last month’s elections, Iran is reported to have hanged six supporters of presidential candidate and opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi. The Jerusalem Post also reports a serious public crackdown on Iranians Monday by Basij militiamen and their female counterparts, the Sisters of Zeynab. Moreover, accounts of prison overcrowding and prisoner abuse have emerged.
The swelling rift among clerics in the Iranian establishment has continued to draw conjecture from Western analysts, prompting a Huffington Post article that examines a potential “clash” between Islam and Democracy in Iran. Similarly, Pepe Escobar at the Asia Times claims that Iran was cementing an uniquely theo-militaristic dictatorship even before the election. On the other hand, reports that the regime–whose survival has depended on its popular appeal–has been weakened. Doubts that the theocracy will weather the crisis remain widespread. Nevertheless, the death of Michael Jackson, many argue, has drawn Western media attention away from Iran, which has been advantageous for President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Posted in Elections, Iran, US media | Comment »
Prediciting State Department Hiring
July 1st, 2009 by Blake
Laura Rozen at Foreign Policy offers predictions for upcoming hiring at the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs (NEA), pending the confirmation of Jeffrey Feltman, NEA’s assistant secretary nominee. Brookings’ Tamara Cofman Wittes is a likely candidate to fill the roll of deputy assistant secretary who oversees Middle East democracy issues. In the running for ambassador to Syria, a position which was withdrawn in 2005, is Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador in Egypt and Israel, and Jake Walles who is currently posted in Jerusalem.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »
U.S. Troops Pull Out of Iraqi Cities and Towns
June 30th, 2009 by Max
As regional media reported of planned Iraqi celebrations of the the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraqi cities and towns, John Hannah of the Los Angeles Times wondered if President Obama is causing Iraqis to grow “uncertain about America’s long-term commitment to their future.”
On the surface, at least, the Iraqi government does not seem to suffer such uncertainty. Today was declared a national holiday, with parades and firework displays organized. Still, many Iraqis were hesitant to go out on the streets, as a carbomb killed 24 in Kirkuk. Reassuring doubting citizens, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maiki asserted that “those who think that Iraqis are not able to protect their country and that the withdrawal of foreign forces will create a security vacuum are committing a big mistake”.
Over at The Atlantic, Graeme Wood chronicles a group of U.S. Marines’ pullout from one base. For the Christian Science Monitor, Jane Arraf writes that the U.S.’s new role remains unclear. For example, in Mosul, where daily attacks have been cut in half, U.S. troops will still be located at five small bases within the city. As of today, these bases will be renamed “joint security stations” and although the U.S. soldiers will be assisting the Iraqis under strict rules, they will still be a presence. In the end, Arraf reasons, it will all come down to how effectively the Americans an Iraqis continue to coordinate.
At Brookings, Kenneth Pollack explains the challenges facing Iraqis in maintaining their security after the U.S. pull out.
Posted in Iraq, Middle Eastern Media, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
Muslim Brotherhood Leaders Under Arrest
June 29th, 2009 by Max
Al Jazeera reports that Egypt has arrested several high-ranking members of the Muslim Brotherhood, in what is generally considered to be a surprise move. No charges have been filed. Those arrested include Abdel Moneim Aboul-Fotouh, who is considered to be one of the Brotherhood’s more moderate members.
The Arabist adds that, in concert with the arrests, several companies close to the arrested persons and other Brotherhood leaders have been shut down in an attempt to deal a financial blow to the group.
Posted in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Bleak Prospects for Iranian Opposition
June 29th, 2009 by Max
On Friday, senior conservative cleric Ahmad Khatami called for the leaders of the Iranian opposition movement to be “dealt with without mercy” for disturbing the peace, adding that “anyone who takes up arms to fight with the people, they are worthy of execution.” He made these remarks during nationally televised Friday prayers at Tehran University.
Contradictory information came out of Iran today. Although the Iranian government initially allowed slight concessions to the opposition–saying that it would push back its deadline for a partial vote recount back by five days–the Guardian Council has announced that it has concluded the partial vote recount, finding no irregularities and confirming the result of the June 12 poll, according to state-run PressTV. There are likewise reports that protesters have gathered in Tehran this evening, but numbers have been small recently as police have continued to actively disperse demonstrations. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has launched an inquiry into the “suspicious” murder of Neda Agha-Soltan, who has become a poster-child of the opposition and representative of the regime’s brutality. Over the past weeks Iranian officials have variously argued that Neda (as she is popularly known by her first name) was killed by the BBC, the CIA and other vaguely-defined outside influences.
In the Washington Post Thomas Erdbrink writes that Mir-Hossein Mousavi is facing a tough choice, as he can either continue to oppose the election results, risking imprisonment, or he can accept defeat and devote himself to building an organized opposition political party. Still, events could take a third direction, as senior clerics in Qom continue to speak out against the government’s repression of popular opinion. It is reported in state media that Grand Ayatollah Abdolkarim Mousavi Ardabili made the case in a meeting with members of the Guardian Council that “events have weakened the system” and that the regime “must hear the objections that the protesters have to the elections. We must let the people speak.” Another Ayatollah, Grand Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani issued two fatwas on Saturday saying that Islam forbids the beating of unarmed people, calling the protests “the lawful right of the people and their only method for informing the rulers of their requests.” Similar edicts have already been issued by Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.
Over at The Daily Dish, Andrew Sullivan & Co. have highlighted a year-old propaganda video released by Iran’s Interior Ministry urging Iranians to spy on their loved ones in order to root out any foreign influences. The video is a useful reference point for those wanting to understand the Iranian government’s siege mentality vis-a-vis the U.S.
Posted in Elections, Iran | Comment »
