On Friday, Bahraini police forces denied the opposition claims that they were responsible for the death of  a protester.  Mohammed Ibrahim Yacoub was one of four anti-government protesters who died on Thursday reported by the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, an opposition activist group. Yacoub was arrested on Wednesday  for what police called participating in “acts of violence and vandalism.”

On Thursday, the NGO Amnesty International criticized, in a press released, the increasing use of tear gas by the security forces against protesters. The NGO stated that tear gas “used inappropriately, including in enclosed areas or on unarmed protesters who are simply exercising their freedoms of expression and assembly, deploying tear gas can constitute a human rights violation.”

Recently, the crisis in Bahrain changed. While the pro-democratic protest led by the 14th of February movement had thus far encouraged peaceful demonstrations, in recent weeks some members called on the internet for the use of violence against the authority forces. Shia Cleric Ayatollah Isa Qassim traditionally called for peaceful protests, has changed his rhetoric saying that police who attacked women could be attacked in return. Specialist in Middle East and Gulf affairs at the German Institute, Guido Steinberg, warned of the risk of radicalization among the Shia youth.

Yesterday evening, Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar Al-Assad began an assault on the city of Homs that has killed more than 30 people. “There has been a terrifying massacre,” reported Rami Abdul-Rahman, director of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Residents of the city said “shabbiha” militiamen loyal to Assad’s Alawite sect had killed 14 members of the Bahader family in Homs’s Karm al-Zaitoun district, including eight children. The slayings are reported to have been followed by a barrage of mortar fire leading to the deaths of 16 people. The assault of Homs began soon after the United Nations  said it could no longer keep track of the death toll in Syria, which it put at more than 5,400 over a month ago. U.N. Human Rights Chief, Navi Pillay, said, “we are experiencing difficulties because of the fragmentation on the ground.” Subsequently, the Free Syrian Army released a video reporting they had captured seven Iranians, five of which being members of the Revolutionary Guards, in Homs. The men are alleged to have been operating as snipers under the direct supervision of Syria’s Air Force Intelligence branch.

Elsewhere, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that Hama came under assault in the early hours of Friday. More than 30 people had been killed in the assault, and the observatory has urged “Arab League observers to visit the city.”

Meanwhile, Nabil Elaraby, the secretary-general of the Arab League, and Sheikh Hamad bin Jasem Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister, are planning a visit to New York to submit a proposal to the Security Council. The plan calls for a “political transition,” similar to what recently occurred in Yemen with President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Elaraby stated, “[The Arab League] is hoping that there will be a vote later in the week.” Ban Ki-moon, the U.N. chief, urged the Security Council to speak with one voice on Syria, and added, “we have to seize this moment, we have to help these people. They have been oppressed for so long.” Russia continues to support Syria and is standing firm on blocking U.N. sanctions which Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has called ”unfair and counterproductive.” Lavrov affirmed that any U.N. resolution can leave no room to “be interpreted to justify any foreign military interference in the Syrian crisis.”

The U.S. Department of State spokeswoman Victoria Nuland released a statement yesterday voicing the U.S.’s growing concern of arrests, harassment, and death sentences of social activists in Iran.  Reports have arisen concerning the arrests of over half a dozen journalists in the last few weeks, including Parastou Dokouhaki and Marzieh Rasouli, two widely read female bloggers. Additional arrests include former National Press Director for the Ministry of Culture Sahamoddin Bourghani, freelance health and science reporter Fatemeh Kheradman, ethnic researcher Ehsan Houshmandzadeh, and former professor and editor of a quarterly journal called Social Welfare Said Madani.

“Under escalating international pressure” and facing tough economic sanctions, Iranian Anaylst Ali Ashfari explained the regimes actions as sending a message that the state will not tolerate any unrest or action against the state’s plans. Parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in March are the first  since the 2009 crackdown in which supporters of the popular Green Movement took the streets protesting rigged elections. Hadi Ghameni, executive director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, claimed that Iran’s actions show that it is aware of the “resilient popularity of the Green Movement” and thus are sending a message to dissidents warning them against mobilization.

This wave of arrest occurs in the midst of friction between competing conservative camps prior to the March elections “already boycotted” by reformist political parties. Those arrested have been charged with vague accusations such as “spreading corruption” and “threatening national security.” Iran, which has already began a campaign of aggressive internet censorship, is “the world’s worst jailer of the press, with 42 behind bars.”

On Tuesday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a panel event highlighting the recent publication of Laurent Bonnefoy’s book, Salafism in Yemen: Transnationalism and Religious Identity, and discussing the role the Salafis have had in the Yemeni revolution. Bonnefoy holds a Ph.D. in international relations from Sciences Po, Paris. He is a researcher in political science at the Institut Français du Proche-Orient (IFPO). Ginny Hill, who offered commentary on the book, is an associate fellow at Chatham House and director of the Yemen Forum. Marina Ottaway is a senior associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, and moderated the event.

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On Thursday, The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies hosted a panel event discussing the ability of liberals to compete in the newly formed governments of the Arab Spring. The panel featured Khairi Abaza Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, an expert on democratic reform in the Arab world. Joining him was the Director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Michele Dunne, Deputy Chief of Mission of the Embassy of Israel in Washington Dan Arbell, and Senior Fellow and former Iran analyst at the CIA’s Directorate of Operations Reuel Marc Gerecht. The event was moderated by Clifford May, President of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. 

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The first anniversary of Egypt’s revolution elicited commentary on Egypt’s transition, not all of which was optimistic. In a joint piece for the Washington Institute for Near East Peace, Samuel Tadros argues that “there is no true democratic transition in Egypt,” but rather Islamists and the military vying for power.  The U.S. and non-Islamists can only hope for a balance where “Islamists do not take over every aspect of the state.” With a similar view, Eric Trager writes “Egypt seems poised to become a competitive theocracy,” where the Muslim Brotherhood and conservative Salafis “fight over how to properly interpret Islamic law.” Lastly, David Schenker asserts that the U.S. must make clear that Egypt’s relationship with America “will be damaged if parliament presses for confrontation with Israel.”

Responding to these pessimistic assessments of Egypt’s future, Ed Husain writes in the Wall Street Journal that “American conventional wisdom” believes that the fall of the dictators weakens American leverage in the Middle East. But Husain argues that Egypt’s revolutionaries looked to America for a democratic model, and says even Islamists “seek an American stamp of approval that bestows legitimacy,” and “show animosity toward the U.S. only with regard to Israel.” Issander El Amrani of the Arabist blog goes further in challenging these views, saying they come from “those who primarily see U.S. Middle East policy through the lens of Israel.” El Amrani argues that the biggest mistake the U.S. can make is to “try to force things or maintain a system that Egyptians clearly want to change.”

This weekend, the son of Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood and at least five other American employees of nongovernmental organizations in Egypt were barred from leaving the country. The Americans were from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI), two U.S.-funded NGOs raided by Egyptian police late last year on suspicion of using foreign funds to destabilize Egypt. Among those barred are IRI Director Sam LaHood and his NDI counterpart Lisa Hughes. The U.S. State Department said it was “disappointed” by the restriction, while one IRI employee called the the travel ban “an escalation,” and another NGO source in Cairo described it as a “de facto detention.” IRI President Lorne Craner said that when he demanded an explanation from Egyptian authorities they told him that “there may be trials.”

U.S. Senator John McCain, who also serves as IRI’s chairman, reacted to the news of the travel ban today with “growing alarm”, and called on the SCAF to end its “harassment” of NGOs operating in Egypt. On Tuesday, McCain joined Senator Joe Lieberman in criticizing U.S. lobbyists who defended the NGO raid on behalf of the Egyptian government. In a joint statement, the senators said this lobbying “[conflicts] with U.S. national interests” and “undermines American values.” U.S. congressmen also sent letters to the leader of Egypt’s ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) last week, demanding a resolution to the NGO crisis and reiterating that American aid to Egypt in 2012 was conditioned on the SCAF achieving certain democratization benchmarks.

The Kuwait Transparency Society called candidates for the parliament elections, held on February 2, to sign an “Electoral Program for the Reform of Kuwait.” The signatories of the program submitted (in Arabic) by the NGO would commit to few political reforms, such as, preparing anti-corruption laws,  achieving transparency of the public sector , working on the change from individual candidate elections system to a list system, issuing a transparent national policy plan by the Prime Minister in cooperation with the civil society, etc. In addition, for the first time, Kuwait Transparency Society will monitor the elections.

Meanwhile, Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah visited the Media Center for National Assembly elections 2012.  Al-Sabah stated “we will not accept or agree to any misuse of the elections,” and stressed “[we] will do our best to ensure that elections are fair and free of any impurities.”

Kuwait’s electoral commission announced that 286 candidates will run in the parliamentary elections, among them 23 women. 400 000 Kuwaitis are scheduled to cast their ballots in the election of 50 representatives.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Institute of Peace hosted an event highlighting the success of “Salam Shabab,” an Iraqi TV show that just premiered its first season. A screening of the final episode of the show was then followed by a brief lecture by Marsha Williams, President at Harvest Research Group and then a panel discussion with Brett Pierce, Co-Executive Producer and former Sesame Workshop Producer, Hussam Hadi, Producer of Salam Shabab, and Afrah Mahdi, USIP Media Program Specialist in Baghdad. This panel was moderated by Theo Dolan, USIP Senior Program Officer. The second panel featured Maryam Al Khawaja, Head of Foreign Relations at the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, Hassan al Faluji, lead singer for Iraq pop band UTN1, and Rami Nakhla (Malath Aumran), Syrian Activist/Blogger and Spokesperson for the Local Coordination Committees of Syria. This panel was moderated by Adel Iskandar, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies and Communication, Culture and Technology.

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On Wednesday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a panel on encouraging Arab innovation across the Middle Eastand North Africa (MENA).  As political freedoms continue to grow, can that innovation translate into economic growth and a true knowledge economy? The speakers were Inger Anderson, vice president of Middle East and North Africa for the World Bank and Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut. The panel was moderated by Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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On Wednesday, the Institute for Middle East Studies of George Washington University hosted a panel discussion on political dynamics in Yemen. The panel included Sheila Carapico, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, University of Richmond; Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Hobart and William Smith Colleges; Laurent Bonnefoy, Research Institute on Muslim and Arab Countries in France and French Center of Social and Archeological Sciences in Sanaa. The panel was moderated by Marc Lynch, Director of Institute for Middle East Studies,GeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

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Four activists have died in the past 24 hours in Bahrain. Hajj Ali Al-Sukari and Abbas Sheikh both died from inhaling tear gas that was fired by Saudi-backed forces during anti-regime rallies. According to the report released by Amnesty International, the use of tear gas against protesters has increased and become more deadly in recent days. More than a dozen deaths have already been attributed to tear gas inhalation, including women and children. Saeed Fakher, also an anti-regime protester, was tortured to death while in custody of security forces. Muhammad Ali Ya’qhoub died after being run over by a Bahraini police car. Some witnesses said it was not the injuries sustained from the car accident, but that Ya’qhoub died from being tortured at the police station after the incident.

Meanwhile, “Professor Cherif Bassiouni, head of the Bahrain Independent Commission, has slammed the actions of the Bahrain Government since the report’s publication, calling it a ‘whitewash’.” Bassiouni is one of many who have condemned the silence of the U.S. regarding the situation in Bahrain. The February 14 Youth Coalition published a letter also condemning the lack of action from the U.S., and said its “silence has been interpreted by the regime in Bahrain as an approval to use brutal methods to crush the peaceful revolution and crackdown on political activists.”

On Wednesday, the Special U.N.’s Envoy to Libya, Ian Martin, declared to the U.N. Security Council that the “revolutionary brigades” were holding detainees and subjected them to torture. U.N. officials said that 8000 detainees, accused of being supporters of the former President Muammar Gaddafi,  are being held  in 60 secret detention centers.  Moreover, the NGO Medecins Sans Frontieres  branch based in Libya halted its work in detention centres in the city of Misrata, because its medical staff were being asked to “patch up detainees mid-way through torture sessions so they could go back for more abuse.” Concerned about the detention condition in Libya, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, called  for “a structure and process for judicial screening of detainees [to] be put in place immediately so that those detainees held without any legal basis can be released while others receive a fair trial.”

In addition, Martin expressed concern about the militias which he said were not under the control of the interim government. He asserted the presence of these militias, and the abundance of weapons circulating in Libya were a threat for the security of the country. The Special Envoy reported fighting  this week in the city of Bani Walid, blamed for being pro-Gaddafi loyalists, caused by clashes between local people and a militia unit. Martin warned that  ”outbreaks of violence could escalate” across the country.

Yesterday, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Wendy Sherman, traveled to Yemen. Sherman met with Vice President, Abdo Rabbo Mansour al-Hadi, other senior government officials, Yemeni civil society leaders, youth organizations, and media, to offer U.S. support for a peaceful democratic transition. A Yemeni news agency reported that Sherman stressed that “Yemen’s security and unity are a strategic matter to the U.S.,” while al-Hadi reported on the “crisis’s consequences in security, political and economic fields and its critical impacts on the stability and unity of the country.” This is the first visit by a senior U.S. Government official since the signing of the political agreement on November 23, in which Yemen’s warring forces agreed to a political transition settlement.

In other news, the U.N. Security Council said it is “gravely concerned by the humanitarian situation” in Yemen and has urged for “credible, non-violent and peaceful elections. ” Members of four Yemeni military airbases have mutinied and are demanding the removal of the Air Force’s commander Major-General Mohammed Saleh. Major-General Saleh is a half-brother to President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has since left the country to seek medical treatment in the U.S. In response to a question posed about Saleh receiving immunity while in the U.S. the State Department stated, “Saleh is still the president of Yemen and will be accorded those privileges and immunities accorded to any head of state until a new Yemeni president is sworn in following elections on February 21.”

On Tuesday, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the United-States (IISS-US) hosted a round table followed by a discussion. The round table dealt with the Arab World perspective regarding the upheaval in Syria, particularly from the Gulf approach. The lecturer was Mr. Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security at the IISS-Middle East in Manama, Bahrain. The moderator was Mr. Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS-US and Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East.

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Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and in cities across Egypt today to commemorate the first anniversary of the uprising which overthrew former President Hosni Mubarak. Activists began to fill Tahrir as early as 3 o’clock in the morning, and thousands more marched on the square after the noon prayers. Many people carried signs, pictures, or coffins honoring those killed during the revolution. Military and police forces were largely absent from the streets. The demonstrations were peaceful and protesters demanded, among other things, a swift transfer of power from the military to a civilian government. But there was no consensus around Egypt’s post-revolution transition – David Kirkpatrick notes in the New York Times that “the spirit that unified last year’s uprising had been replaced by new tensions between Egyptian political factions.” The Muslim Brotherhood endorsed the plan proposed by Egypt’s ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), who promised to leave power in June. However, Egypt’s liberal and secular politicians and activists rejected that schedule and demanded a much faster timetable.

In a statement today, the U.S. White House congratulated Egypt for its recent steps toward democracy and reaffirmed that America “will continue to stand with the Egyptian people.” Other commentators noted the many challenges that remain one year after Egypt’s revolution. Steven Cook wrote in Foreign Policy that “the people vying for leadership are all too familiar, and many of the restrictive laws constraining NGOs and the press remain firmly in place.” Indeed, Reporters Without Borders announced today that Egypt dropped dramatically on its “World Press Freedom Index”. Similarly,  Eric Trager claimed in New Republic that “Washington has no heroes in Cairo, only headaches,” and “Egypt is now headed for radical theocratic, rather than liberal democratic, rule.” Regarding the status of nongovernmental organizations in Egypt, U.S. Senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman reacted to news that some U.S. lobbyists had defended the raids on NGOs by Egyptian police last year on behalf of the Egyptian government. These lobbying efforts “conflict with U.S. national interests” and “[undermine] American values,” the senators said.

Representatives Chris Murphy (D-CT) introduced a resolution with David Dreier (R-CA), Russ Carnahan (D-MO) and David Price (D-NC) applauding Tunisia’s peaceful “Jasmine Revolution.” The resolution praised Tunisia’s peaceful “Jasmine Revolution” as “the first of several movements throughout the Middle East and North Africa and inspired democracy and human rights activist throughout the region and around the world.” The elections on October 23, 2011 were considered “the first competitive, multi-party democratic election of the Arab Spring” where more than “50 percent of all eligible voters and nearly 90 percent of registered voters participated.” As Tunisia continues developing its democracy the bill “reaffirms the unwavering friendship between the people of the United States and the people of Tunisia.” This follows a similar resolution introduced by the Senate last year.

Recent reports said, “a group of Western and Arab nations are seeking the expulsion of Syria from the U.N. cultural agency’s human rights committee.” The U.N. Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) elected Syria to two panels in November, including one that judges human rights violations. A letter, signed by 14 ambassadors, was sent to the executive board of UNESCO and read, ”the situation in Syria challenges UNESCO’s basic constitutional objectives, in particular to further respect for justice, for the law and for human rights and fundamental freedoms.” There is a proposal that Syria be expelled from the committee altogether, which would mark the first time UNESCO would remove a member. The executive board is expected to discuss the proposal over several meetings in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, several analysts have spoken out regarding the situation in Syria. Kate Seelye, the vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, said that Russia is the key player in moving things forward. She emphasized the importance of the Arab League terminating the mission and referring the matter to the U.N. Security Council. However, in recognizing Russia’s reluctance to sign any proposals imposing sanctions against Syria, she said that “[Russia] must also be cognizant that Syria is descending into a civil war… The Arab League and the Syrian opposition, therefore, should persuade Moscow to change its position … [and] offer Russia reassurances that its interests will be taken into account in any future Syrian government.”

A six member mission of international organziations sent to Bahrain last Novemeber “in order to gain an understanding of free expression and the status of human rights defenders” released a report today criticizing Bahraini authorities for failing to deliver on promises of reform. Since the publication of the Bahraini Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) report, a document which itself cites abuses against peaceful protesters, demonstrators have continued to protest on a daily basis. The Bahraini government “intent on maintaining the status quo” has continued to “punching individuals for voicing their opinion and protesting ongoing repression.”

The report Justice Denied in Bahrain: Freedom of Expression and Assembly Curtailed details violations of human rights by Bahraini authorities relative to the “handling” of ongoing demonstrations. The report stresses the need to consider the proportion of Bahraini’s relatively small population “jailed and killed” and maintains the integrity of the protesters asserting that their message has been “distorted” as the government and international community tend to focus on “sectarian interpretations and geopolitical issues”.  The report  details accounts of torture, imprisonment, and prosecution giving first-hand accounts of torture and imprisonment from lawyers, human rights defenders, writers, artists, journalists, government officials, and foreign diplomats.

The report concludes with 11 recommendations to the Bahraini government “based on the reading of the BICI report, as well as the assessment of the situation in Bahrain during the course of the mission.” The recommendations call for the “end of the harassment, imprisonment and prosecution of Bahraini citizens” and the rights to “free expression and legitimate human rights work”. The mission also insists that those responsible for human rights violations, including torture and killing, be held accountable for their actions.