Enforced Disappearances in Pakistan
July 24th, 2008 by Adam
Amnesty International recently released a report detailing enforced disappearances in Pakistan. The report cites 563 cases of enforced disappearances and states that the Pakistani government obstructed efforts to find those who disappeared. Amnesty International says most of the disappearances were conducted with the complicity of the security and intelligence forces, usually under the pretext of terrorism related charges. To remedy this violation of human rights, the report suggests that Pakistan reinstate judges that demanded answers on disappearances and fully account for all those who have disappeared.
Posted in Human Rights, Pakistan | Comment »
Qatar’s Diplomatic Influence
July 24th, 2008 by Adam
George Abraham of Al Jazeera (English) writes an interesting article regarding Qatar’s rise as a serious diplomatic player in the Middle East. According to the article, Qatar has been able to find a distinctive niche due to its economic power, its strategic alliance with the U.S., and a willingness to engage all regional actors. These factors, as well as an understanding of popular regional movements, have allowed tiny Qatar to diplomatically punch above its weight.
Posted in Diplomacy, Qatar | Comment »
Accepting an American-Iranian Dialogue
July 24th, 2008 by Sarah
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi makes his first official visit to Washington and warns that Israel would not rule out any course of action regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Meanwhile, Aluf Benn at Haaretz derides the Bush administration for drastically shifting its policy toward Iran, but ultimately recommends that “instead of making the mistake of holding on to the false hope that Bush will actually order the bombing of Iran, Israelis should start looking at the positive aspects of an American-Iranian dialogue, while insisting that Israel’s vital interests not be undermined.”
Posted in Iran, Israel, Military, US foreign policy | Comment »
The Expanding Coup Plot in Turkey
July 24th, 2008 by Adam
The Daily Star reports that 26 people were detained Wednesday in Turkey as police investigated whether they had links to the Ergenekon, a shady group of secular ultranationalists opposed to the AKP. This is likely to complicate the situation as, “The investigation into Ergenekon has raised tensions in Turkey and widened the rift between Erdogan’s supporters and secularists who accuse the government of using the probe to intimidate opponents.”
In other Turkish political news, the Constitutional Court will begin deliberating on July 28 to decide whether the AKP will be banned. No timeframe for a decision has been decided, but the judges will meet daily starting on Monday.
On a related note, remember that POMED is hosting a public panel discussion today (Thursday, July 24th) at 2pm entitled “Turkey’s Political Crisis: Implications for the Middle East” in the Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2212. For more details, click here.
Posted in Turkey | Comment »
Fragile Consensus
July 24th, 2008 by Sarah
Posted in Lebanon | Comment »
Turkey’s Troubles and the Middle East
July 23rd, 2008 by Adam
POMED Research Associate Alex Taurel and our Director of Research Shadi Hamid write an interesting article in the Christian Science Monitor about the implications for democracy in the Middle East if Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is shut down by the Constitutional Court. They assert that it would send a troubling message to Islamists in the region that no matter how much they moderate, they will not be accepted as legitimate political actors. According to the two authors, this would only bolster radical Islamists that see violence as the only avenue of political influence. Taurel and Hamid conclude by urging President Bush to denounce the closure case to send the message that the U.S. is willing to defend political actors in the Middle East that abide by democratic principles.
On a related note, remember that POMED is hosting a public panel discussion tomorrow (Thursday, July 24th) at 2pm entitled “Turkey’s Political Crisis: Implications for the Middle East” in the Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2212. For more details, click here.
Posted in Articles, Events, Turkey | Comment »
Morocco’s Islamist Party Selects Moderate Leader
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Morocco’s Islamist Justice and Development Party has selected Abdelilah Benkiran, a leading moderate figure, as the group’s new leader replacing Saad Eddine Othmani.
Ahmad Hamouch at IslamOnline.net notes Benkiran’s moderate position and points to his focus “on the everyday concerns rather than on religious agenda,” which Benkiran describes as “inspired by our Islamic background but a religious background linked to the citizen’s needs…The citizens suffer from poverty, unemployment, a housing crisis and problems in education and healthcare.”
Democracy Digest notes, however, that the PJD faces criticism from “radical Islamists opposed to its accommodation with the state and from secular democrats who believe that, despite its incremental approach, the party retains a commitment to ultimately implementing sharia law.”
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Morocco, Political Islam, Political Parties | Comment »
Kurdish Walk-Out
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Marc Lynch at Abu Aardvark suggests that the recent walkout of Kurdish Iraqi Parliament members at the vote on the country’s provincial election law spells trouble for political reconciliation. “At a minimum, it seems likely that President Jalal Talabani will not vote to ratify the law, which means it will not come into effect. Even worse would be if the decision drives Kurds to now demand the implementation of Article 140 [the deeply contentious referendum on the status of Kirkuk]… And then, of course, there’s the prospect of a mass Kurdish boycott of the provincial elections leading to a round of disenfranchisement reminiscent of the Sunni community in 2005.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Sectarianism | Comment »
Palestinian Security Forces as a Move Towards Peace
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Anthony Cordesman in an op-ed in the New York Times argues that the U.S. should help build a Palestinian security force in order to promote peace between Palestinians and Israelis. “Unless there are effective Palestinian security forces, Israel will never trust in a Palestinian state or be able to act on the quiet progress being made toward reaching a final settlement.”
Along those lines, Cordesman denounces the State Department for acting as a “key barrier to the first real step toward peace,” by preventing U.S. actors from “working in the field and developing critical personal relationships with Palestinian officers and officials.”
Posted in Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Military, Palestine, US foreign policy | Comment »
Negotiations With Iran
July 23rd, 2008 by Sarah
Farideh Farhi at Informed Comment interprets the comments made by Iran’s nuclear negotiation Saeed Jalili. “I had to read this statement at least 10 times to realize that he is doing his best to say that Iran wants to continue talks with the six countries present at Geneva without telling the Iranian public that in order to do this Iran has to accept the freeze for freeze formula.”
Farhi suggests that the reason for Jalili’s obfuscation is because “Ahmadinejad’s administration has turned the issue of Iran’s right to enrichment into such a national spectacle that Jalili has to worry about his moves being perceived by his hard-line audience as a retreat, rather than a mere sensible or even shrewd compromise at a time of great opportunity.”
Meanwhile, Craig Chamberlain at The Conservative Voice believes that the current negotiations with Iran are futile, and “will be seen as a sign of fear and weakness on our end. Iran will not abandon its plans until it is forced to do so.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran | Comment »
Reasonable Expectations in Afghanistan
July 23rd, 2008 by Adam
Ralph Peters writes in USA Today that the U.S. needs to have realistic goals in Afghanistan because the complexity of the reality on the ground makes it difficult to fulfill America’s lofty objectives. The porous Afghan-Pakistan border and Afghanistan’s tribal, multi-ethnic nature make it unlikely that it will become truly peaceful, even with a long-term presence of foreign troops. Peters suggests that the U.S. should aim for a situation in Afghanistan that is relatively peaceful and only plagued by manageable problems that do not threaten global security.
Posted in Afghanistan, US foreign policy | Comment »
The Arab Center and Reform
July 23rd, 2008 by Adam
In an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times, former Jordanian foreign minister, Marwan Muasher says that the U.S. needs to help bolster moderate Arabs by sincerely pushing to solve the Arab-Israeli conflict in order to deprive radical elements of the idea that violence works and the moderate path will lead to failure. Furthermore, Muasher says Arab reformers must help themselves by focusing their efforts on issues more appealing to the public, such as political reform, good governance, and economic development. He concludes that Arab reformers must be at the forefront of serious, but gradual political reform because a failure to change benefits radical elements that are seen as the only alternative to the current group of elites.
Posted in Reform | Comment »
POMED Notes: Islamist Parties and Democracy
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
Yesterday, the International Forum for Democratic Studies and the National Endowment for Democracy invited Hillel Fradkin, Amr Hamzawy, Laith Kubba, and Tamara Cofman Wittes to assess the rise of Islamist parties and its implications for democracy in the region. All of the speakers agreed with Wittes’ statement that Islamist parties “are not evolving in a vacuum. The U.S. is part of this, and rather than just sitting here, we must take responsibility for what happens next.”
Marc Plattner of the International Forum for Democratic Studies and Vice President at the National Endowment for Democracy moderated the event.
For POMED’s full notes, click here.
Posted in Event Notes, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Political Islam, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The Implications of the Opening Steps for a Diplomatic Path Between the United States and Iran”
July 22nd, 2008 by Adam
On Tuesday, the Center for Strategic & International Studies held a discussion regarding the recent developments in the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and what implications these developments could have on U.S. policy. Panelists included Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter, Gen. Brent Scowcroft (Ret.), former National Security Advisor to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, and David Ignatius, Associate Editor and Columnist for the Washington Post. Bob Schieffer, CBS News’ Chief Washington Correspondent and host of Face the Nation served as moderator.
For POMED’s complete notes on this discussion, click here.
Posted in DC Event Notes, Diplomacy, Event Notes, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
U.S. Policy After The Israel-Hezbollah Swap
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
Andrew Exum at Middle East Progress recommends that the U.S. continue to arm and train Lebanon’s armed forces “to serve as a viable instrument of the state,” and warns against a drastic change in policy. “The real danger here is that U.S. policy might overcorrect in one of two directions: either the United States could enter into direct negotiations with Hezbollah to undetermined ends or the United States could redouble efforts to arm Hezbollah’s internal enemies in the hopes that their domestic position will be weakened. The former option is foolish, while the latter is suicidal.”
Graeme Bannerman argues at Common Ground News Service that by restoring a governing consensus among Lebanon’s the three largest groups - Maronites, Sunnis, and Shi’a - the Doha Agreement began the process of separating the interests of the Shi’a community from that of Hezbollah. “As more and more Shi’a believe their community interests are protected by the government, and as more and more become less comfortable with Hezbollah policies, Hezbollah leadership will either begin to lose popular support or have to change their policies.”
Posted in Hezbollah, Lebanon, US foreign policy | Comment »
Turkey’s Political Crisis
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
In the Winter edition of Dissent Magazine, Daniele Castellani Perelli interviews Yale political scientist Seyla Benhabib about the state of Turkish political affairs.
Benhabib is skeptical about claims that the AKP party secretly wishes to use Turkey’s democratic institutions in order to implement an Islamic theocracy, but is also unconvinced that Turkey can serve as a model for other Muslim nations. “In general, the secular model of development through state-run elites…has become frayed. It is not working.”
For an excellent review of the political scene in Turkey, check out this interesting article in The Economist.
And remember, POMED is hosting an event entitled “Turkey’s Political Crisis: Implications for the Middle East” on Thursday, July 24th at 2pm at the Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2212. For more details, click here.
Posted in Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Turkey | Comment »
Der Spiegel Spurs Debate On Withdrawal
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
Matthew Yglesias at The American Prospect suggests that Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki’s recent statement to Der Spiegel magazine reflects “the real post-surge shape of the political debate — a tug-o-war between the imperial fantasies of the American right, and the joint desire of the Iraqi and American people to end U.S. military involvement in Iraq.” According to Yglesias, the 16-month schedule for U.S. withdrawal will buy the Iraq government continued U.S. military support while also asserting Iraqi sovereignty, and will help the U.S. end the war in Iraq on the best possible terms, while freeing up needed resources.
Kimberly Kagan at The Weekly Standard strongly disagrees. “The whole purpose of the surge was to transform the conflict over power in Iraq from a military to a political struggle. We and the Iraqis have accomplished that goal–for now. But the most critical period in the birth of a new Iraq lies ahead. America can stand beside this fractious and sometimes violent young state whose people are now passionate about democracy. Or we can abandon them to their enemies, to their own fears and insecurities, and to the fragility of their months-old efforts at real reconciliation. It is a weighty choice, but not a hard one for anyone who has seen the vision of a possible future Iraq.”
Abe Greenwald at Commentary Magazine’s Contentions is dismayed by al-Maliki’s decision to publicly broadcast his support for a 16-month time frame for withdrawal, but ultimately suggests that “if al-Maliki truly wants U.S. combat forces out in 16 months, then we should leave. If he’s right — and Iraq sees a continued reduction in violence and progress as a viable state in the absence of American troops — then that certifies a gargantuan victory for America in the Iraq War. If he’s wrong, the world pays an incalculable price for a bad decision.”
Much of the debate about troop withdrawal centers on what is seen as improvements in Iraqi stability, yet Patrick Cockburn at The Nation isn’t so confident. “Nobody here knows whether this rebirth of the Iraqi state machine is a mirage.” On the whole, however, Cockburn concludes that there is no better gift to the Iraqi government than a timetable for withdrawal: “So long as the US occupation continues, the Iraqi government will be deemed illegitimate by its own people.”
For more opinions on withdrawal, check out the debate at Dissent Magazine, with Michael Walzer, Jean Bethke Elshtain, Sohail Hashmi, Gerard Power , and Trudy Rubin.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comment »
The New Turkish Political Order
July 22nd, 2008 by Adam
Looking at the Turkish Constitutional Court case to ban the AKP and the current prosecution of those who plotted a coup against the government, Soli Ozel of the Daily Star says their is reason to be optimistic about the future of Turkish politics. The attempt to ban the AKP is an attempt by the feeble opposition to maintain their relevance. Ozel says the case against the coup plotters illustrates that the Western-oriented, liberal faction of the military may be supplanting the secular authoritarianism of the old order. However, Ozel warns, “In short, the days of military tutelage over Turkey’s politics are arguably over. Whether or not Turkey’s civilian politicians, particularly the AKP (or its successor party in the undesirable event of closure), will rise to the challenge of firmly establishing the rule of law and engage Turkey determinedly in a secular, liberal, democratic path remains to be seen.”
Posted in Reform, Secularism, Turkey | Comment »
The Status of Al-Qaeda
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
This week’s edition of The Economist focuses on the status of al-Qaeda worldwide.
The issue addresses the current debate over CIA Director Michael Hayden’s claim of a “near strategic defeat” of the terrorist organization, its growing strength in Pakistan, its ability to recruit and export its ideology, the contrast between home-grown terrorism in Europe and the U.S., the effects of maintaining Guantanamo Bay on fighting global terrorism, tactics explored by Saudi Arabia to tackle terrorism, and al-Qaeda’s self-destructive tendencies.
Posted in EU, Military, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Terrorism, US foreign policy, al-Qaeda | Comment »
A Bush Policy Shift?
July 22nd, 2008 by Sarah
At National Interest Online Barbara Slavin reviews President Bush’s recent decision to send Undersecretary of State Bill Burns to participate in talks with Iran, alongside the P5+1. Either “President Bush believes diplomacy will not work but realizes he must at least go through the motions to avoid criticism that he is rushing to war,” or “with the situation in Iraq somewhat stabilized and Western economic sanctions beginning to bite in Iran, the administration believes it has sufficient leverage to negotiate and that Iran is receptive to a deal.”
Iran currently has 2 weeks to formally respond to the incentive package.
The Economist asserts its own interpretation. “Having Mr Burns in Geneva, it is hoped, will underline the seriousness of the offer to negotiate, but also Iran’s need to choose.”
Posted in Diplomacy, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »
