August 2008 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

With the Democratic convention wrapped up and the Republican convention now underway, it’s clear that a page is turning.  Whether it’s McCain or Obama, the next president will enter the White House in January with an opportunity to signal a new pro-democracy U.S. approach to the Middle East.

Will he squander that opportunity, continuing along the same path without enunciating clearly the American interest in democratic reforms?

Will he succumb to the pressure to revert to an older set of policies – the corrupt deal with autocrats that sought stability through stagnation?

Or will he seize the opportunity by demonstrating in word and deed a commitment to something new: a new statement of American concern for the democratic aspirations of Middle Easterners, new assistance conditioned on political reform goals, new diplomatic signals that, alongside other U.S. priorities in the region, the U.S. is determined to press for progress on human rights, rule of law, and democracy?

It’s time now to ask Senator Obama and Senator McCain what they think about democracy and the Middle East – and so we asked you, our readers, to submit your questions for the candidates.

We were overwhelmed by your response, but we’ve tried to represent all of your outstanding questions into a list of 12.  Please check out the list we sent to the candidates here, and let us know what you think.

Over the next three months, visit POMED’s blog for regular updates on the candidates statements related to our issues. And, of course, we’ll let you know when we hear back from the campaigns!

All the best,
Andrew

(P.S. For another interesting list of questions, you can read Ayman Nour’s recent letter to Senator Obama here.)

Andrew Albertson
Executive Director
Project on Middle East Democracy
andrew.albertson@pomed.org
(202) 422-6804

POMED Updates

POMED Announces Three New Additions to our Advisory Board

We are very excited this month to announce the addition of three outstanding leaders to POMED’s Advisory Board: Ambassador Wendy Chamberlain, President of the Middle East Institute; as well as a pair of distinguished former members of Congress, Republican Jim Kolbe and Democrat Jim Moody. Their expertise and guidance will be invaluable as POMED continues to grow.

See the full list of our Advisory Board members here. 

Human Rights in Egypt

The month of August began with difficult news regarding another member of POMED’s Board of Advisors, Dr. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, who was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison by an Egyptian court for his criticism of the Egyptian government and particularly his public support for the conditioning of U.S. assistance to Egypt upon political reforms.

Immediately following Dr. Ibrahim’s sentencing, POMED issued this public statement condemning the decision.  We also share the hopes of Dr. Saad Eddin himself that his case will help draw attention to broader areas of concern regarding human rights and the rule of law in Egypt.

For this reason, POMED will host a public panel discussion on  the afternoon of Wednesday, September 10, entitled, “Egypt Today: The State of Human Rights and Rule of Law.”  We will be pleased to have four outstanding speakers address these issues: Michele Dunne of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Neil Hicks of Human Rights First, Marc Lynch of George Washington University, and former Assistant Secretary of State and Ambassador to Egypt Nicholas Veliotes.  The discussion will take place at 2:00 pm in the Cannon House Office Building, Room 210, and will be open to the public.

Significant Gains in West Bank Security Not Enough: Palestinian Political Institutions Lag

by Stephen McInerney
Director of Advocacy, POMED

As internal tensions have escalated among Palestinians in recent weeks, fears of violent civil conflict have resurfaced.  Such fears emerge despite the visible and impressive progress made by the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces in the West Bank in building their capacity and restoring order, most notably in Nablus and Jenin.  However, the capacity-building of an array of political institutions has lagged severely behind, and it is such institutions that now deserve the focus if the Palestinian territories are to avert crisis once again and develop the governing capacity that is needed.

West Bank No Model of Governance

Following the Hamas takeover of Gaza in June 2007, the approach of the international community was to push to make the West Bank a model of success as compared with Gaza, demonstrating clearly to the Palestinian people the benefits of moderation.  The restoration of order by the Fatah-led PA in the West Bank and economic growth spurred by international assistance, accompanied by political progress and a relaxing of Israeli restrictions on the West Bank, were to demonstrate to Palestinians the benefits of moderate, enlightened leadership. 

In short, this approach has failed.  While the Palestinian Authority under Prime Minister Salam Fayyad is to be lauded for significant progress in restoring order and security, the West Bank has simply not seen the degree of progress laid out as the goal 15 months ago.  Following the Annapolis conference, the Peace Process has once again stalled and is now viewed as all but dead for the remainder of 2008. 

While international donors have been supportive, the West Bank has also not experienced the kind of economic growth envisioned.  Internal reforms have been underwhelming from an economic perspective, the loosening of Israel’s West Bank closure regime has not followed as planned, and the economy has additionally suffered from external forces plaguing the entire region including rising energy and food prices.  

And although new polling data out this week does show Palestinian public support for Hamas slipping, support for Fatah appears stagnant.  Rather than the Palestinian public rallying behind the Fatah-led PA in the West Bank, it appears that those losing faith in Hamas merely feel disillusioned, not represented by any actor in the Palestinian political process.  Moreover, other signs suggest that Hamas may in fact be gaining strength in some key respects.  Direct negotiations with Israel over a fragile but successful ceasefire and the release of prisoners have in some eyes strengthened the Hamas position.  Also, in recent weeks, the government of Jordan has broken with nine years of isolating Hamas to slowly reestablish ties through negotiations with the group.

International Support Must Focus More on Political Development, Not Less

As recognition grows that international backing of the Fayyad-led PA in the West Bank has not yielded the overwhelmingly successful model many had hoped for, there may a temptation by Western states to ease off their support.  Funding and other support may be more difficult for foreign governments to justify in the absence of promised, demonstrable success.  However, it is critical at this time that Western nations including the U.S. not disengage or lose interest in the building democratic institutions in the West Bank and Gaza.

Escalating tensions in recent weeks not only between Fatah and Hamas but inside each of these groups have heightened the risk of the Palestinian territories degenerating toward civil war, with potentially devastating consequences not only for the Palestinians, but also for Israel and for U.S. interests as well.

On the contrary, what is needed is a strengthened, more coherent U.S. approach that integrates existing efforts, builds on those that have yielded success, and most of all, focuses on extending the security and law enforcement gains to Palestinian political institutions.  In a story repeated across the region, from Iraq to Afghanistan to Lebanon to the Palestinian territories, security gains can set the stage for political progress, but will be quickly undone without it. 

United States General Keith Dayton, who oversees the training of PA forces in the West Bank, has been extremely optimistic in describing their progress and their role in building the capacity for a Palestinian state. But at the same time, he does openly acknowledge, “Now it can all go bad if political progress doesn’t happen…”

That needed political progress will require political courage on the part of Fayyad and President Abbas, who must root out corruption from the PA bureaucracy and earn the trust and respect of their constituency.  But August meetings of Fatah’s Conference Preparatory Committee revealed deep divisions within the party and scant evidence of the political will required to move forward. 

If there is to be progress toward real Palestinian development, this political will must be pushed to emerge.  Only if issues of corruption and the development of effective institutions for governing are addressed with the same urgency with which the security forces have dealt with militias in Jenin can the Palestinian Authority become an effective governing body.  And much as the support and training by foreign militaries have bolstered the efforts of Palestinian security forces, only with the full support and the resources of the international community and the cooperation of the Israeli government can the institutional weaknesses of the PA be addressed.

Legislative Roundup

There is no legislative activity to report, as Congress was away on recess for the entire month of August.  Congress will return to session September 8 for an intense three weeks that will include the passing of some sort of continuing resolution to extend federal funding beyond the end of the fiscal year on September 30.  Congress is then expected to adjourn for the year early so that members of Congress may focus on the electoral campaigns through November 4.